User No-Media-36179 highlights the challenge of estimating healthcare costs before Medicare eligibility. A feature that estimates potential healthcare costs for early retirees would be beneficial.
**43M/44F, ~$4M NW — Can we retire at 45 or 50? Be honest with us.** **The basics** - Dual income household, both healthcare professionals - Combined income: ~$280k - No state income tax - Two kids, ages 7 and 12 - We've been targeting 59.5 but honestly wondering if we're being too conservative **Net worth ~$4M** - Retirement accounts: $1.8M (mix of Roth, Traditional, HSA) - Taxable brokerage: $50k (actively building) - Cash/emergency fund: $100k - 529s: $130k - Real estate equity: ~$1.8M (primary residence paid off + rental portfolio) **The income floor that makes early retirement interesting** This is the unusual part of our situation. I inherited an IRA in 2016 under pre-SECURE Act rules. It's currently $744k, projecting to $1M+ by age 45 and $1.5M+ by age 50 despite mandatory annual RMDs. The RMDs are taxable and unavoidable — they'll generate $30-40k/year at age 45 and $50-60k/year at age 50 whether we touch anything else or not. On top of that we have a rental portfolio — mix of short and long-term rentals currently generating income, with a plan to scale to 12 LTRs. Conservatively that's another $40-60k/year in net cash flow, growing over time as mortgages pay down. **So the real question is about the gap** At age 45 (2027): - Inherited IRA RMD: ~$30k - Rental income (net): ~$40k - Subtotal without touching investments: ~$70k/year - Retirement accounts: ~$2.2M but locked until 59.5 (10% penalty or SEPP) - Taxable brokerage: ~$300k and growing - Gap to fund from taxable: whatever we spend above $70k At age 50 (2032): - Inherited IRA RMD: ~$45k - Rental income (net): ~$70k (more units, some mortgages paying down) - Subtotal without touching investments: ~$115k/year - Retirement accounts: ~$3.5M still mostly locked - Taxable brokerage: ~$500k - Gap much smaller — maybe self-funding at modest spending levels **The problems we see** 1. Healthcare. Ages 45-65 is 20 years without employer coverage. ACA marketplace for two adults in their mid-40s isn't cheap, and our income from RMDs + rentals likely disqualifies us from meaningful subsidies. 2. The retirement accounts are locked. $1.8M growing to $3-4M that we can't touch without penalty until 59.5. SEPP (72t) is an option but it's rigid and locks you in. 3. Kids. Our older one starts college in 2032, younger one in 2037. We have 529s but college costs during the early retirement years are real. 4. Sequence of returns risk on a thin taxable account. At age 45, $300k in taxable isn't a lot of cushion if markets drop 30% in year 2. **What do you think?** - Is 45 crazy given the locked retirement accounts? - Does 50 work with ~$115k/year in floor income and ~$500k taxable? - Anyone navigated a large gap between accessible and locked assets in early retirement? - How did you handle healthcare before Medicare? We're genuinely open to being told we need to keep working. Just want honest takes.